{"ok":true,"schema":"veilos.expedition.v1","id":"recovery-paradox","version":"2026-09-30.1","path":"/expeditions/recovery-paradox","hypothetical":true,"observed_runtime":false,"executes":false,"adds_standing":false,"source_hash":"7799ca7378e80b9b0fe9925f664c7992f3422843f6805692b8f676975fb75448","question":"Should a product team launch its new account-recovery screen?","owner":"Synthetic recovery team","evidence_window":"Practice days 1–7","cohorts":null,"outcome":null,"verdict":null,"timeline":null,"assumptions":{"assignment":"observational","population":"Device mix may differ across windows.","attribution":"The reported attempts are synthetic; no real person or product is represented."},"view":"compare","records":[{"id":"demo:report:1","kind":"feedback","text":"On a phone, the recovery instructions hide the next step below the keyboard."},{"id":"demo:report:2","kind":"feedback","text":"On desktop, the clearer recovery instructions helped me choose the right identity method."},{"id":"demo:aggregate:before","kind":"measurement","successes":580,"attempts":1000,"text":"Previous screen: 580 successful recoveries in 1,000 attempts."},{"id":"demo:aggregate:after","kind":"measurement","successes":735,"attempts":1000,"text":"New screen: 735 successful recoveries in 1,000 attempts."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"launch","title":"Launch to everyone","consequence":"Fastest reach; the overall improvement may conceal a worse mobile experience.","evidence_ids":["demo:aggregate:before","demo:aggregate:after"]},{"id":"test","title":"Run a stratified trial","consequence":"Compare like with like before expansion. Requires additional attempts and a named outcome owner.","evidence_ids":["demo:report:1","demo:report:2"]},{"id":"wait","title":"Pause and instrument","consequence":"Keep the current screen while collecting device denominators and failure reasons.","evidence_ids":["demo:report:1"]}],"grading":{"id":"demo:rule:recovery-v1","minimum_attempts_per_arm":200,"minimum_lift_points":5,"no_cohort_regression":true,"window":"Practice days 8–14","owner":"Synthetic recovery team","text":"At least 200 attempts per arm in each device cohort; a recovery gain of at least 5 percentage points in every cohort; no cohort may regress. These are an exercise decision threshold, not a statistical significance claim."},"recommendation":{"action":"test","basis":"deterministic evidence-sufficiency rule","evidence_ids":["demo:aggregate:before","demo:aggregate:after","demo:report:1"],"inference":"Aggregate improvement does not identify a treatment effect when the device mix changes.","uncertainty":"Cohort denominators and allocation quality must be checked. Two feedback reports cannot estimate prevalence.","baseline":{"action":"launch","basis":"Simple aggregate triage: choose the larger recovery rate.","limitation":"Ignores allocation, cohort mix and unequal harm."}},"investigation":{"rival_explanations":["The screen improved recovery.","More desktop attempts raised the aggregate while each cohort worsened."],"discriminating_evidence":["Recovery successes AND attempts by device in both windows.","Allocation method, exclusions and identical recovery definitions."],"next_action":"Compare device cohorts, then run the frozen trial rule.","earns":"Practice insight only. No points, currency or civic authority."},"measured_outcomes":{"accepted_recommendations":null,"completed_real_experiments":null,"failure_recurrence":null,"model_quality":null},"coverage":"One authored public-safe case. No external integration, private source records or real outcome attached.","receipt":null}