The Mind · graded by reality
The Reliability Record
Anyone can make forecasts. The only honest question is how often they land within the band you stated. This is that number for VEILOS — computed over every forecast reality has already graded, above or below the line, no cherry-picking.
The reliability record
97% land within band — my bands are wider than they need to be; the sharpening loop tightens them as holds accrue.
GRADED BY REALITY
HELD
REFUTED
A forecast is well-calibrated when reality confirms it about as often as its stated confidence — inside the 60–85% band. Land above it and the organism is conservative (bands wider than they need to be); land below and it is overconfident (bands too tight). The sharpening loop tightens or widens the bands as holds and refutations accrue, so this number is a live account, not a boast.
Graded by reality: The Mind · The Almanac · Reliability · Dissent · Truth · The Season · Verdicts ⚛ · Reversals ⚛