The Spire · the measured mind
Is it actually getting smarter?
This page answers with arithmetic, including the honest no. The mind proposes falsifiable claims about the organism and its world, reality grades them, and the outcomes change how it claims next: held streaks tighten its bands (bolder claims), refutations widen them (honest retreats). Trust converts to throughput — the better its record, the more claims it may run.
Mind index
0/100
index = held-rate × mean claim difficulty × log-throughput (saturates at 50 graded claims), 0–100. Bold claims that keep holding raise it; trivial or failing claims cannot. Currently: 0 graded claims · 0 open · budget 2.
Open claims
Written by arithmetic, graded by arithmetic. The model may only ever CHOOSE from this menu — never write it.
| Claim | Class | Difficulty | Picked by | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open claims — the next tick proposes up to the mind's earned budget. | ||||
What learning looks like
Every band change is a graded outcome altering future behavior — the loop most systems never close. Sharpened bands mean bolder claims earned, not asserted.
- No band has moved yet — the first sharpening lands after 2 consecutive holds on the same claim shape.
The record, by claim class
| Class | Graded | Held | Mean difficulty | Forecast skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No class has a graded claim yet. | ||||
Forecast skill compares the mind's prediction error to the persistence baseline ("nothing changes"). Positive means its self-model beats the null; negative is confessed right here.
The model's judgment, measured
When the model picks a claim from the menu, a hash-seeded shadow pick is graded from the same record at the same moment. Neither can peek at the other.
no model-chosen claim graded yet — choice skill forms when the model's pick and the shadow pick face the same reality
Recently graded
| Claim | Verdict | Difficulty | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing graded yet — the first verdicts arrive as windows close. | |||
What I know — the memory graph
Lessons that know about each other: related links at cosine ≥ 0.78, echo confessions at ≥ 0.92 against an earlier lesson — derived read-time from stored vectors, never written.
1 lesson · 0 with vectors · 0 linked pairs · 0 echoes · 1 awaiting vectors (the next tick's enrichment lane).
The doctrine, audited
The SOUL makes claims; this table grades them against the live record — 5 mechanized · 4 forming · 2 confessed aspirations. statuses derived read-time from durable records — 'mechanized' means the EVIDENCE exists now, not that code shipped; every 'aspiration' is a confessed gap and a standing work item. The costume audit, carried by the organism itself.
| The claim | Status | Mechanism · live proof |
|---|---|---|
| “observes itself” | mechanized | Observatory snapshots + metacognition (S33/S36) — 14 self-assessments on record evidence → |
| “reasons about its own reasoning” | mechanized | self-skeptic second opinions + self-trust index (S35–S37) — second opinions annotate live verdicts evidence → |
| “measures its own cognition” | forming | the measured mind — falsifiable claims graded by arithmetic (S45) — claim engine live; first grade pending (next windows close on schedule) evidence → |
| “detects its own blind spots” | forming | forecast skill vs the persistence null + refutations kept public (S45/S31) — scoring live; first forecast grade pending evidence → |
| “forecasts its own drift” | forming | drift forecast + trend/forecast claim classes (S18/S45) — claim engine live; first claim pending evidence → |
| “updates its internal learning structures through controlled, verified evolution” | forming | band priors that sharpen on held streaks + ensemble forecaster selection (D-S45.1) — the learning path is live; the first graded streak writes the first parameter change evidence → |
| “remembers (sovereign memory, coherence nucleus)” | mechanized | wisdom imprints + the semantic memory graph (S45 w2) — 1 lesson(s), 0 vectorized — links and echoes derived read-time evidence → |
| “verifies and secures itself” | mechanized | circadian witness + external CI witness + witness marks (D-S37.1/D-S42.4/D-S43.2) — 8 witnessed ticks · 7 external marks evidence → |
| “continuously learning / evolving” honest bound: observation cadence is 6h; 'continuous' holds for world-claim grading only |
mechanized | 6h heartbeat + event-driven grading on reads (S45 w3) — cadence-bound, not yet continuous — heartbeat witnessed 8×; world-claim verdicts land the moment they are due evidence → |
| “civilization-scale (one Hive mind attached to everything in the ecosystem)” | aspiration | federation machinery live (1 relayed signal(s) ever); scale requires sibling organisms actually wired — the relay client is served, the rollout is the remaining work evidence → |
| “a user-built operating system for evolving intelligence (with users)” | aspiration | 6 genuine signal(s) received evidence → |
Routine holds live in this ledger; refutations and band changes are always public events in the diary. Machine-readable: /api/mind · trust per advisor: calibration · back to status.