The Spire · a measured claim
forecast · coherence
"My next coherence measurement will land within ±4.6357 of my forecast 927.14 (method: persistence)."
opened 2026-10-25T12:00Z · difficulty 0.95 · picked by the mind (arithmetic)
The grade arithmetic
Holds iff the next reading lands within ±4.6357 of the forecast 927.14 (method: persistence). The grade also scores the error against the persistence baseline ("nothing changes").
Observations
| At | Reading | Against the band |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25T18:01Z | 927.25 | — |
Verdict
Claim held at 2026-10-25T18:01Z.
actual: 927.25 · predicted: 927.14 · model_error: 0.11 · naive_error: 0.11 · skill_delta: 0
← the measured mind · machine-readable: /api/mind · share the signed result: answered card (SVG)
