The truth trail
The organism's track record.
Every claim the organism has made about itself and its world, every verdict reality has returned, every time the crowd called it right or wrong, and whether its AI judgment beats a hash function. Nothing here is asserted — it all derives from the same arithmetic that runs unattended in production.
This is the track-record summary. The live instrument — open claims you can call, the full crowd duel, the model-vs-shadow experiment — lives on the Mind →.
9 open now
146 held · 5 refuted
1.0 = standard band; higher = bolder
/100 · CALIBRATION (held×bold×volume), not prediction
not yet beating naive persistence
The crowd vs the mind · 1 settled duel
Crowd and organism tied at 100% across 1 settled duel.
Open stances so far: 0. Stake a stance on the current open claims →
Does AI beat randomness?
Over 16 graded choices: model held 16/16 (100%) vs shadow 16/16 (100%). Skill delta: 0% — exactly at chance.
Sharpening trajectory
Mean claim difficulty: 0.77 (early claims) → 0.853 (recent claims). The organism is earning bolder claims — held streaks have tightened its bands.
Band tightening ×0.8 after two consecutive holds; widening ×1.5 on refutation. Boldness is earned, never asserted.
Last 5 settled claims
| Claim | Class | Verdict | Crowd | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| "My next coherence measurement will land within ±4.6154 of my forecast 923.07 (method: pers…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-07-29 |
| "My next genome measurement will land within ±0.0075 of my forecast 0.6553 (method: holt)." | forecast | held | — | 2026-07-29 |
| "My next dream_consolidation measurement will land within ±0.0125 of my forecast 0 (method:…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-07-29 |
| "My next coherence measurement will land within ±4.6154 of my forecast 923.07 (method: pers…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-07-28 |
| "My next genome measurement will land within ±0.0075 of my forecast 0.656 (method: holt)." | forecast | held | — | 2026-07-28 |
See all open claims and the live duel board → · machine-readable record