The truth trail
The organism's track record.
The 151 claims still on the organism's record, every verdict reality has returned on those, every time the crowd called it right or wrong, and whether its AI judgment beats a hash function. Nothing here is asserted — it all derives from the same arithmetic that runs unattended in production.
This is the track-record summary. The live instrument — open claims you can call, the full crowd duel, the model-vs-shadow experiment — lives on the Mind →.
What this page is counting out of. 151 settled claims still on the record — not a lifetime total: the mindClaims ring holds 160 rows and has already dropped 941, whose verdicts are gone. The organism has made 1101 claims in total; 160 are still held and 941 have aged off. How many of the evicted ones had settled is not recoverable — unrecoverable — an evicted row's verdict is gone, so how many evicted rows belonged to this subset cannot be derived from anything still held — so this page reports the retained population and does not guess at the rest.
9 open now · window of 160; 941 evicted
148 held · 3 refuted · over the 151 retained, not the 1101 ever made
1.0 = standard band; higher = bolder
/100 · CALIBRATION (held×bold×volume), not prediction
not yet beating naive persistence
The crowd vs the mind · 1 settled duel
Crowd and organism tied at 100% across 1 settled duel.
Open stances so far: 0. Stake a stance on the current open claims →
Does AI beat randomness?
Over 32 graded choices: model held 32/32 (100%) vs shadow 32/32 (100%). Skill delta: 0% — exactly at chance.
Sharpening trajectory
Mean claim difficulty: 0.849 (early claims) → 0.875 (recent claims). The organism is earning bolder claims — held streaks have tightened its bands.
Band tightening ×0.8 after two consecutive holds; widening ×1.5 on refutation. Boldness is earned, never asserted.
The instrument behind the trail
How far this truth-check can see
The release proof follows completeness claims through 12 callable forms and 1 same-module call frame. It currently binds 55 declared source claims to the capped records they describe.
ring readers in 48 modules where the completeness wording lives elsewhere
counted as outside this predicate, never silently called clean
Not asked is not an all-clear. This check still cannot follow claims two or more call frames from their count, and counts computed in another module. Read the same boundary as data →
Last 5 settled claims
| Claim | Class | Verdict | Crowd | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| "My next soul measurement will land within ±0.0125 of my forecast 0.5477 (method: persisten…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-09-11 |
| "My next genome measurement will land within ±0.0075 of my forecast 0.613 (method: persiste…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-09-11 |
| "My next soul measurement will land within ±0.0125 of my forecast 0.5477 (method: persisten…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-09-11 |
| "My next genome measurement will land within ±0.0075 of my forecast 0.613 (method: persiste…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-09-11 |
| "My next soul measurement will land within ±0.0125 of my forecast 0.5477 (method: persisten…" | forecast | held | — | 2026-09-11 |
See all open claims and the live duel board → · machine-readable record