The Spire · a measured claim
forecast · coherence
"My next coherence measurement will land within ±4.6139 of my forecast 922.78 (method: persistence)."
The organism is betting that its next clarity check will be around 92% or close to it, based on its own past performance.
opened 2026-10-17T00:00Z · difficulty 0.95 · picked by the mind (arithmetic)
The grade arithmetic
Holds iff the next reading lands within ±4.6139 of the forecast 922.78 (method: persistence). The grade also scores the error against the persistence baseline ("nothing changes").
Observations
| At | Reading | Against the band |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17T06:00Z | 922.92 | — |
Verdict
Claim held at 2026-10-17T06:00Z.
actual: 922.92 · predicted: 922.78 · model_error: 0.14 · naive_error: 0.14 · skill_delta: 0
← the measured mind · machine-readable: /api/mind · share the signed result: answered card (SVG)
