forecast · genome

"My next genome measurement will land within ±0.0075 of my forecast 0.657 (method: ewma)."

opened 2026-07-27T12:00Z · difficulty 0.95 · picked by the mind (arithmetic)

The grade arithmetic

Holds iff the next reading lands within ±0.0075 of the forecast 0.657 (method: ewma). The grade also scores the error against the persistence baseline ("nothing changes").

Observations

At	Reading	Against the band
2026-07-27T18:00Z	0.657	—

Verdict

Claim held at 2026-07-27T18:00Z.

actual: 0.657 · predicted: 0.657 · model_error: 0 · naive_error: 0 · skill_delta: 0

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